Long-term equilibrium relationship analysis and energy-saving measures of metro energy consumption and its influencing factors based on cointegration theory and an ARDL model [1]

The energy consumption of metros has widely been concerned with respect to their economy and environmental protection. To analyze the complex dynamic relationship between metro energy consumption and its influencing factors and provide a reference for metro energy conservation control, this paper uses the monthly energy consumption, passenger flow and operating distance statistical data for Wuhan Metro Line 2 from 2018 to 2019. First, metro energy consumption and its influencing factors are qualitatively analyzed and identified. Then, based on cointegration theory and an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model, a correlation hypothesis between metro energy consumption and its influencing factors is constructed, and a method for analyzing the influencing factors of metro energy consumption is proposed. The total energy consumption of a metro (TEC), train traction energy consumption (TTEC), environmental control energy consumption (ECEC), station lighting energy consumption (SLEC), station equipment energy consumption (SEEC) and the operating distance (OD) and passenger flow (PF) variables are analyzed. Using cointegration and an impulse response function, the dynamic relationships between the various energy consumption factors and operating distance and passenger flow are evaluated. The results show that there are substantial differences in the effects of OD and PF and their degree of influence on metro energy consumption. (1) OD affects mainly TTEC and TEC. The degree of influence of OD on TTEC reaches 97.8%, and the degree of influence of OD on TEC reaches 65.9%. (2) PF affects mainly ECEC and SEEC, and the degrees of influence of PF on ECEC and SEEC are 32.2% and 41.3%, respectively. (3) Considering that OD is the key factor affecting TTEC and TEC, train marshaling schemes, train running intervals and train stopping scheme optimization countermeasures are proposed, which can provide decision support for metro energy consumption management and control.